Morning Highlights


Highlights                                 

  • In a tweet this morning, President Trump said China, “was supposed to start buying our agricultural product now – no signs that they are doing so. That is the problem with China, they just don’t come through.” The U.S. and China are in trade talks this week, which are believed to focus on clarifying where each side stands.
  • The Federal Reserve’s FOMC meeting begins today, and markets are expecting an interest rate cut to be announced Wednesday afternoon.
  • CHS will be attending Minnesota Farmfest in Morgan MN on Aug 6-8, please stop by booth 316 to visit. We will be providing daily market updates at 10:00 am. For more information please click here.
  • As of 7:00 am CT, crude oil is up 40 cents to $57.27/barrel, gold is up 8.60 at $1,429.00, DOW down 98 to 27,100, dollar index up 18, and Euro is up 35 pts.

Corn

  • Corn condition rating increased 1 pt to 58% good-to-excellent vs expectations of flat to 1 lower. The crop is 58% silking and 13% dough.
  • Analysts estimate Brazil’s safrinha corn harvest is 76% complete, with Mato Grosso at 94% vs 81% last year.
  • The EPA hopes to rule on delayed 2018 small refinery biofuel waivers in the next few weeks. In recent years, the number of waivers granted has more than quadrupled, with current 2018 waivers exempting 2 billion gallons of fuel.
  • Weekly corn export inspections totaled 645,367 MT vs 400-700k MT estimates, and the marketing year total is now 54 million bushels behind the USDA’s projected export pace.

Outlook:  Sep futures flat to down 3 ¾ overnight.. walking back yesterday’s gains after condition rating was slightly above estimates, but still holding the recent low.

 

Oilseeds

  • Soybean condition rating was unchanged at 54% good-to-excellent. The crop is 57% blooming and 21% setting pods.
  • Soybean open interest was down 18,580 contracts and is now at a 4 year low.
  • China’s weekly auction of state soybean reserves sold less than 1% of the quantity offered. Year to date they have sold 444,000 MT of the 1,200,000 MT offered.
  • Soybeans had their highest export inspection total in the past 22 weeks, at 1,031,477 MT vs 400-800k MT estimates, with China accounting for 58% of the shipments.

Outlook:  August beans up 1 ¼ to down 5 ¼ overnight..  no fresh sales announcements and negative headlines on China trade talks.

                 

Wheat

  • Spring wheat condition is rated 73% good-to-excellent, down 3 pts from last week, and the crop is 97% headed. Winter wheat harvest is 75% complete vs 69% last week and an 86% five year average.
  • EU soft wheat exports in July were down 22% year-over-year at 762,000 MT.
  • Analysts believe hot, dry weather in Ukraine will result in more milling quality wheat, up from 55% to as much as 70% of production.
  • Weekly wheat export inspections totaled 390,730 MT vs 350-550k MT estimates, with HRW accounting for 54% of the total.

Outlook:  Sep KC wheat down ½ to down 5 ¼ overnight..  gapped lower overnight, but should outperform corn today.