10/18/2019 7:29:52 AM
- Global equities are lower overnight after China showed a slower growth rate than expected at 6% in the third quarter.
- White House Adviser Peter Navarro said the plan is to have a partial trade deal for the APEC summit in November down in Chile.
- US tariffs on imports of $7.5 billion worth of European goods go into effect today. The tariffs are being placed due to the viewpoint of the US that the EU is providing subsidies to aerospace manufacturer Airbus giving them an unfair advantage over US aerospace manufacturer Boeing.
- Outside markets as of 7:15 AM Central: November crude oil is up $0.49 at $54.42; Dow futures are up 17 points; U.S. Dollar is down 0.160 at 97.175.
- The weather looks to be dry for the next couple of days across the Corn Belt, but rain is expected early next week for most of the Corn Belt.
- The deal made between the UK and EU yesterday will be voted upon by the British parliament on Saturday. Experts have the deal being voted against by a slim margin.
- Corn is lower overnight with nothing new regarding the China trade talks and the demand for corn is suffering. Market appears to have some good support, waiting for more clarity on the US-China trade deal and on domestic production.
- It has been a dry week across most of the Corn Belt and has giving some the chance to get their corn harvested where it is ready. Other areas are still wet and corn moisture is not quite dry enough or mature enough in some areas, so soybeans have been the focus.
- Export sales were at 368,600 MT vs. expectations of 400,000-800,000 MT.
- Poor margins continue to keep ethanol production weak as it came in 4% below a year ago. Stocks did recover from last week despite slow production.
- Spreads are quiet this morning: Z/H 11 ½ cent carry; Z/K 18 cent carry; Z/N 23 cent carry.
Outlook: Mixed, lack of fresh news making things weak.
- Soybeans were higher overnight, continuing to find strength on optimism regarding a possible US-China trade deal and assessments some production was lost from the storm this past weekend in the northwestern Corn Belt.
- Export sales for soybeans were 1,600,000 MT vs. expectations of 900,000-1,600,000 MT. Soymeal exports were 152,900 MT vs. expectations of 150,000-400,000 MT. Soyoil exports were 4,000 MT vs. expectations of 0-25,000 MT.
- US sales to China this week have slowed as Brazilian prices have weakened and reportedly have gotten Chinese business.
- Chinese soybeans were up 5 ¼ cents at 3,422 yuan per ton. Soymeal was up 3.30 at 2,992 and soyoil was up 8 at 6,034. Malaysian Palm oil was up 25 ringgits at 2,246 and 61 ringgits higher for the week.
- Spreads are quiet this morning: X/F 13 ¾ cent carry; X/H 26 cent carry; X/N 42 cent carry.
Outlook: Mixed on quiet trade, finding some support on US-China trade deal optimism but there isn’t much fresh news to drive the market.
- Wheat was lower overnight after having another strong performance this week finding support from global demand picking up at higher prices. China possibly buying $40-$50 billion worth of Agricultural goods provided supported as well.
- Saskatchewan weekly crop report showed spring wheat harvest at 66% and their all crop harvest is at 66% complete vs. the 5-year average of 88%.
- Export sales were at 395,100 MT vs. expectations of 250,000-550,000 MT.
- National Bank of Australia forecasts the wheat crop at 15.5 MMT vs. USDA’s 18 MMT.
- Japan purchased 35,590 MT of food-quality wheat from the US.
- Spreads slightly tighter this morning: Chicago Z/H 4 ½ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 12 ¾ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 13 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: Lower, pulling back after a week of gains.