11/11/2019 7:29:38 AM
- Happy Veteran’s Day!Thank you to all of you that have and still do serve our nation!
- The trade negotiations with China appear to have slowed again over the weekend.The next round of tariffs are expected to be enacted on Dec 15th if no deal is reached.
- As of 6:30 central time: Dow Jones Index futures are down 112 points (0.41%), the Shanghai index lost 1.83%, the Nikkei was down 0.26%, and the DAX was down 0.45%.
- The U.K. third-quarter economic data showed their GDP increasing 0.3%.This comes after they posted a decline of 0.2% in the second-quarter.The fact that it was an increase is key because two consecutive quarters of GDP decline would have been the trigger for declaring an official recession.
- As of 6:30 am central time, the US Dollar index is down 213 points, currently at 98.189 which is still above the 10 and 20 day moving averages.
- As of 6:30 an central time, crude oil futures are down 67 cents per barrel.December WTI is currently trading at $56.56 per barrel.
- Calendar spreads have relaxed a little this morning, with the bell weather Dec/March spread trading at 9 ½ cent carry.This is after trading as narrow as 8 last week.With only 13 trading days before first notice day for December futures, basis levels need to continue to be monitored closely.
- To that point, a scan of posted bids show at least one central IL corn processor is posted at +20 CZ19 for both Nov and Dec delivery.
- Other spreads this morning: Z/K 16 ½ cent carry; Z/N 22 ½ cent carry.
Outlook: without much fresh news to trade, corn futures are following beans lower this morning.
- There are no major changes in the weather 1-5 day forecast for brazil with rains still expected to help replenish the moisture profiles across the central and northwestern soybean growing regions.However, the 6-10 day forecast shows an area of dryness developing in Brazil’s southern states.
- A scan of posted basis levels across the country continue to show the tail of two extremes, with northern Indiana plant delivered basis posted at option price the Jan 20 futures, while at the same time basis levels in central Nebraska are posted at 75 cents under the Jan 20 futures.
- Spreads this morning: F/H 13 cents carry; F/N 35 ¾ cent carry; N/X 2 cent carry.
Outlook: The slow pace of the trade negotiation with China has traders in a selling mood this morning. However, volume seems to be lighter than normal, so any buying interest could push us back into the green by mid-session.
- The weather forecast for the nest 1-5 days continues to be dry for the wheat growing regions of Australia.
- Spreads this morning: Chicago Z/H 3 ½ cent carry; Kansas City Z/H 9 ¼ cent carry; Minneapolis Z/H 16 ¼ cent carry.
Outlook: on a thin news morning, all three wheat markets seem be following corn and beans lower.