Morning Highlights with Exports


Highlights

  • Both the GFS and Euro model precipitation maps are now calling for upwards of 2 inches of rain to fall in a path from Oklahoma up to Ohio and into the North East. The 6-10 day forecast continues to call for above average precipitation and below average temperatures across the Midwest as well.
  • At last look the US Dollar index was up 0.087 to 96.913 points.
  • The Dow Jones mini futures are up 71 points overnight to 26,083.
  • The energy markets moved higher overnight as two crude oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Nearby crude is up $2.24 to $53.38 per barrel.

    Corn

  • The corn market moved higher overnight as rainy and cool weather continue to dominate the forecasts for the Midwest.
  • Export sales for corn came in at 168,500 tons for 18/19 and 94,100 for 19/20 vs estimates of 250,000-500,000 tons and 100,000-300,000 tons respectively.
  • ProAgro consultancy bumped up its Ukrainian 2019 corn production forecast 1.4 mmt to 32.6 mmt.
  • The contract high for December corn futures is $4.54. The overnight high was $4.52 ¾.
  • Chinese corn futures were up a penny overnight. China sold 2.54 mmt of corn out of state reserves in an overnight auction.
  • Spreads: N/U 6 ¾ cent carry, N/Z 15 ½ cent carry, Z/H 7 cent carry, Z/N 10 ½ cent carry.

    Outlook: Higher off the open as weather concerns and technical buyers try to push the market to new highs.

    Oilseeds

  • The soybean market continued its move on rain and delayed planting concerns as well.
  • Export sales for soybeans came in at 255,900 for 18/19 and 275,200 for 19/20 vs estimates of 200,000-500,000 tons and 100,000-300,000 tons respectively. Soymeal exports were 112,500 tons 18/19 and soyoil was seen at 5,100 tons 18/19.
  • Reuters is reporting that Chinese soybean buyers are asking US sellers to delay cargoes of soybeans set to be shipped in July to August.
  • China is reporting that their pig herd fell 24% year over year for the month of May. This comes as more cases of ASF continue to be discovered in the country.
  • The Canadian government is set to boost an insurance program for canola exporters after trade tensions between Canada and China stymied demand.
  • Malaysian palm oil was up 40 ringgits to 2,008 ringgits. Weekly change of down 20 ringgits. Chinese soybean futures were down 2 ¾ cents overnight.
  • Spreads: N/Q 6 ¾ cent carry, Q/U 7 cent carry, U/X 13 ½ cent carry, X/N 36 cent carry.

    Outlook: Choppy to higher trade as weather and planting concerns are met with low export sales and an oversupplied market.

    Wheat

  • The wheat markets continued to see inter market spreading in the overnight as KC led the way higher on harvest concerns with more rain in the forecast.
  • Export sales for wheat came in at 49,100 tons for 19/20. A total of 1.587 mmt were carried over from 2018/19 to 19/20.
  • Iraq’s head of state grains said that the country has enough wheat until the end of 2019, although it will continue to import in order to bolster its reserves. The grain board head also stated they have imported 400,000 tonnes of wheat since January and look to procure 4 mmt from their local harvest.
  • Jordan’s state buyer issued a new milling wheat tender for 120,000 tonnes overnight.
  • Strategie grains cut its EU wheat forecast 1 mmt to 22.1 mmt due to a lack of global competitiveness.
  • Spreads: N/U Chicago 4 cent carry, KC 12 ¾ cent carry, Mpls 8 ¼ cent carry.

Outlook: Choppy to higher trade as we gauge how much rain is set to fall over the HRW harvest regions.