Morning Wire


Highlights                    

  • CHS Hedging has scheduled an Introduction to Technical Analysis class on January 10th, 2020. In addition, CHS Hedging will offer an Energy Class on January 23rd, 2020. To register for these classes please go to chshedging.com and click on the appropriate link to the class or classes you may be interested in attending.                            

  • First notice day for November Futures is Thursday October 31, 2019. Be out of long positions by the close of business on Wednesday October 30th if you do not want to risk taking part in the delivery process.

  • An early reminder, Daylight Savings Time ends this coming Saturday night. Fall back one hour on your clocks before your head hits the pillow that night. Yes, you get that hour of sleep back that you lost in the spring time! 

  • Daily Price Limits for Grains and Oilseeds will reset on November 1st. Soybean daily limit will drop to 60 cents from 65 cents to be the only real change most folks will take notice of.    

  • U. S. Congressional hearings begin today as the Corn-Ethanol vs the Big Oil interests continue to battle over the Trump administration’s use of “secret waivers“ for refineries.                                                                                                                               

  • A/0 7:10 A. M. Crude Oil down 67 @ 55.14, Dow Futures down 61 @ 26,992, U. S. Dollar Index up .940 @ 97.835.   

            

Corn                                                

  • Monday afternoon’s Crop Progress Report showed corn is 93 % mature vs 86 % last week vs the 5-year average of 99 %.  Corn is 41 % harvested vs 30 % last week vs the 5-year average of 61 %. The harvested total of 41 % was 2 % below the average trade estimate of 43 %. Corn was rated 58 % G/E vs 56 % G/E last week.                                                           

  • The EU estimated 19/20 corn imports as of October 27th @ 6.5 million tons vs 5.1 million tons at the same time last year.

  • Taiwan’s MFIG has issued a tender to purchase 40,000 to 65,000 tons of corn. The corn can be sourced from the U. S., Brazil or South Africa. The tender closes tomorrow, October 30th. Shipment periods vary depending upon origin.

  • Crop specialist Dr. Cordonnier, in his weekly update, left his u. S. corn production estimate unchanged @ 162.0 bushels/acre with a 13.04 billion bushels.                                          

Outlook: Overnight has given us another unimpressive trade with prices 1 ½ - 2 cents lower. Harvest continues to lag and snow are headed across NE, KS, IA and Missouri in the next 24-36 hours. The low end of support continues to be tested.                                           

 

Oilseeds                      

  • The Crop Progress Report pegged soybeans dropping leaves @ 97 % vs 94 % last week vs the 5-year average of 99 %. Soybeans harvested came in right at the average trade estimate of 62 % vs 46 % last week vs the 5-year average of 78 %.                                                     

  • The EU reported that 19/20 soybean imports stood at 4.25 million tons as of October 27th. The total was up 2 % vs the same time last year. Soybean meal imports had jumped 20 % on a year/year basis to 6.3 million tons.  

  • South Korea is working and international tender to purchase 150,000tons of Non-GMO soybeans. The tender has a long tail and does not close until November 11th.   

  • In his weekly update, crop specialist Dr. Cordonnier left his estimate of U. S. soybean production unchanged @ 3.47 billion bushels with yield @ 46.0 bushels/acre. In addition, His pegs for soybean production in Brazil and Argentine were unchanged @ 124.0 million tons and 57.0 million tons respectively. The Dr. left Brazilian corn production unchanged @ 103.0 million tons while Argentine corn was also unchanged 2 50.0 million tons.                                                                                               

Outlook: Increased harvest last week is weighing on overnight prices to this point. Lack of new bullish input is no help either. Trade focusing on FND for November positions on Thursday and desperately needs a new “kick in the pants” to make the next move higher.                                           

 

 Wheat

  • The Crop Progress Report Monday afternoon showed Winter wheat plantings @ 85 % complete vs 77 % last week vs the 5-year average of 82 %. Key HRW states were ahead of the planting pace over the last five years with the exception of Montana which showed 87 % planted vs the 5-year average of 95 %. Winter wheat is 63 % emerged vs 53 % last week vs the 5-year average of 64 %. The first Winter Wheat ratings for the crop year showed 4 % Very Poor vs 3 % last year, 9 % poor vs 11 % last year, 31 % Fair vs 33 % last year, 44 % good vs 45 % last year, 12 % Excellent vs 8 % last year.                  

  • Egypt’s GASC tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers for Dec. 5-15 shipment. The lowest offer is @ $214.86 for 60,000 tons of French wheat.                    

  • EU soft wheat exports as of October 27th were pegged @ 8.55 million tons, up 50 % from October 21st of last year.  

  • Russia has resumed wheat shipments to Vietnam after Vietnam requested a temporary halt in the shipments earlier this year due to thistle seed being found in the shipments. According to a Russian spokesman increased phytosanitary control over the shipments have been implemented, thus the resumption of the wheat shipments.

  • Pending international wheat tenders include Ethiopia for 200,000 tons of milling wheat that closes today, Jordan, today for 120,000 tons of optional-origin milling wheat and Bangladesh in tomorrow for 50,000 tons of milling wheat.

  • KC spot premiums yesterday posted ords up 19, 11.0 proteins up 6 and 11.2 proteins up 1 to 101/111 +Dec.                                                                                                                                                                                                                     

Outlook: Winter wheat planting and emergence are on course, very little new information to get too excited about. Feels like prices “topped out” earlier and now we consolidate. Prices seeing a little late overnight push with KC up 3 ½ , Chicago up 3 but Minneapolis unchanged.