Morning Highlights


Highlights

  • Lawmakers have yet to reach a deal on homeland security that would prevent the government from shutting down again on February 15th.
  • Export inspections will be released today at 10:00 am central time.
  • At last look the US Dollar index was stronger overnight, up 0.192 to 96.829 points.
  • The mini Dow Jones futures were up 96 to 25,117 points as we resume our trend higher overnight.
  • The energy markets were weaker in the overnight markets with nearby WTI down $0.37 to $52.35 per barrel.

    Corn

  • The corn market was weaker on technical selling overnight and on follow through selling from Friday.
  • According to the USDA, farmers have enrolled 86.398 million acres of corn in US crop subsidy programs for 2019 as of January 28th.
  • In the USDA’s latest supply and demand report, the US corn yield estimate was cut to 176.4 bushels per acre. On the demand side, Feed and Residual, FSI, and Ethanol consumption were all reduced. Ending stocks were reduced 46 million bushels to 1.735 billion bushels.
  • Overnight, March corn broke the trend support higher that started back in September.
  • Spreads: H/K 7.75 cent carry, K/N 7.75 cent carry, H/Z 24 cent carry.

    Outlook: Choppy to weaker off the open as we now await any news coming out of the next round of trade talks.

    Oilseeds

  • The soybean market was back on the defensive overnight after posting modest gains on Friday.
  • The US and China are expected to resume trade talks this week, with emphasis on intellectual property. China’s foreign ministry said it hopes to see good results from the talks with the US.
  • AgRural revised their estimate for Brazilian soybean production down to 112.5 mmt from the 116.9 mmt previously estimated. They also reported Brazil’s soybean harvest at 26% complete, ahead of 10% last year.
  • The USDA reported that farmers have enrolled 87.965 million acres of soybeans for subsidy programs for 2019.
  • In the USDA’s latest WASDE, US soybean yield was seen down half a bushel to 51.6 bushels per acre. On the demand side, crush was increased while exports decreased. Ending stocks were lowered 45 million bushels to 910 million bushels.
  • Spreads: H/K 14 cent carry, K/N 13.5 cent carry, N/X 14.75 cent carry, N/Q 5.5 cent carry.

    Outlook: Looking for lower trade off the open as we await the deputy level trade talks that are set to happen today.

    Wheat

  • The wheat market was lower overnight as we try to get competitive on a global level again.
  • The lowest offer in Bangladesh’s tender came at $294.95 per tonne on a C&F basis.
  • Over the past week, Indonesia purchased 60,000 tonnes of SRW likely sourced from the US.
  • China continue to sell small amounts of wheat in their state-run auction system.
  • Russia is considering sending 50,000 tonnes of wheat to North Korea.
  • The USDA is reporting wheat farmers have enrolled 44.954 million acres of wheat in 2019 subsidy programs.
  • The latest USDA supply and demand report showed Seed and Feed/Residual usage getting dropped, increasing ending stocks by 36 million bushels to 1.01 billion bushels.
  • Spreads: H/K Chicago 2.25 cent carry, KC 7.5 cent carry, Mpls 1 cent carry.

Outlook: Looking for choppy to lower trade off the open, but limited downside at these price levels.